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[This Document is the Property of His Britannic Majesty's Government C . O.
Manchurian negotiations with China of both Japan and Russia, and that consequently such dismissal would be welcome to the two Powers. The Japanese Government have, however, indignantly repudiated these rumours, and both Sir Claude MacDonald and Sir John Jordan agree that they may be absolved of any intrigue in the matter.
This latest development in Chinese politics is somewhat disturbing. By removing Yuan Shi Kai from office the Regent has deprived of power the most prominent Chinese statesman and the most influential of the enlightened and vigorous officials who are working for the reconstruction and development of the Empire. The step is not a good omen for the future of the new régime-it cannot but be regarded with regret and anxiety, not only because of the unfortunate effects which it may produce, but also because of the evidence it affords as to the spirit and purpose animating the new Chinese Government. The news of the sudden deaths of the late Emperor and Empress Dowager excited at first considerable alarm. For a long time there had been apprehensions that such an occasion might lead to a dangerous situation in Peking, and might be utilized by the revolutionary parties for organizing disturbances in the Empire. But the firm control of events exhibited by the authorities in the capital and the calmness with which the crisis was regarded by the people restored confidence. Favourable reports were circulated as to the capacity and leanings of the Regent, Prince Chun. There seemed reason to believe that he would show a friendly disposition towards Yuan Shi Kai, and be ready to co-operate with him in providing for the country's welfare. During the last few months of the Empress-Dowager's life Yuan's power seemed to be more firmly established than ever. There was a disposition to suppose that under the new régime his authority and influence would be still greater and more widely extended.
If Yuan could have secured the supreme directing influence in Chinese affairs, the prospect of a purification and reorganization of the Government and adminis- trative machine would have been much brighter. Apparently, as far as international Treaties and Agreements are effective, the independence and integrity of the Chinese Empire are secured for a number of years, and it would be well if the Chinese nation saw to it that full advantage were taken of this breathing space. But there are powerful interests and influences opposed to the changes which the work of reform would naturally involve, and if the statesinan best fitted to direct the progress of the Empire is thrust aside by the jealousies of the ruling caste the chances of orderly aud progressive advance must be seriously diminished.
That Yuan Shi Kai should have made many enemies is only natural. The favour shown to him by the late Empress Dowager, the honours heaped upon him, the range of his authority and influence, have naturally inspired jealousy and antagonism in official circles. All who profit by the abuses of the administrative system regard with hatred one who has endeavoured to promote changes inimical to their welfare. The Manchus, above all, have cause to fear him. He is a Chinaman, and if the system of constitutional government for which he has been pressing comes into being the power and privileges of the ruling caste will be in danger.
It is said that there has been a personal feud between himself and Prince Chun, the Regent. Another powerful personality who may have assisted Yuan's enemies is Chang Chih-tung. This member of the Grand Council, until lately the Viceroy of Hupeh and Hunan, is a great Chinese statesman of the old type, and yet one who has worked to promote modern education. He is much older and more conservative than Yuan, and is said to be unfriendly to the latter, and the Manchu reactionaries have no doubt been trying to fan the feeling between the two men,
How the news has been received in the provinces not yet known, but while a few years ago knowledge of the event would only have reached very few, the growth of the press, of the Post Office, and of railways will rapidly carry accounts all over the Empire. Popular feeling has as yet no constitutional means of expressing itself, but the numerous guilds no less than the Secret Societies provide means for the organization of public opinion and action. It must be hoped that the present development does not mean that the forces of reaction are gaining the upper band.
(Initialled) B. A. Foreign Office, January 26, 1909.
AFFAIRS OF CHINA.
CONFIDENTIAL.
9564
[February Ec
REGE18 MAR 09
SECTION 4.
[4908]
No. 1.
Sir J. Jordan to Sir Edward Grey.-(Received February 6, 1909.)
(No. 579.)
Sir,
Peking, December 24, 1908. I HAVE the honour to transmit to you herewith copy of a despatch from the Acting British Consul-General at Mukden reporting the engagement by the Manchurian Government of two agricultural experts from the United States.
The authorities do not seem to have made up their mind as to the exact manner in which the services of these gentlemen can best be utilized, and the conclusion drawn by one of them tallies with what is the general impression-that Manchuria, with its great wheat-bearing capacity and other resources, is yet in too hackward a condition at the present time to profit by modern scientific methods of agriculture, and that what the country chiefly requires is increased facility of communication for the carriage of its produce.
I havo, &c. (Signed)
Sir,
Inclosure 1 in No. 1.
Acting Consul-General Willis to Sir J. Jordan.
J. N. JORDAN.
(No. 78. Confidential.)
Mukden, November 30, 1908. IN my despatch No. 18 of the 23rd February last I reported that the Manchurian Government had decided to engage the services of two agricultural experts from the United States.
The gentlemen selected for the appointments, Mr. Parker, who is a graduate of Wisconsin University and an expert on scientific agriculture, and Mr. Tomhave, a specialist on sheep and cattle breeding, arrived in Mukden last August, and have signed agreements for three years with the Provincial Government.
I had gathered from confidential conversations with my former American colleague, Mr. W. D. Straight, that, as reported in my previous despatch, the intention of his Excellency Tong Shao-yi was to employ these gentlemen in the local experi- mental farm which has been working for the past two years under Japanese management.
However, his Excellency left Manchuria before their arrival, and the Manchurian Government has seemed at a loss to formulate a scheme under which their services may be advantageously utilized.
In the course of a recent interview with Taotai Huang, the Director of the Department of Agriculture and Commerce, I was informed that the establishment of an Agricultural University was contemplated, and that, as there was no class of student in Manchuria suited for an education of this nature, the students were to be imported from the southern provinces.
I urged Mr. Huang to make some practical use of the services of his experts, and attempted to convince him that agriculture in Manchuria was not at present in a sufficiently forward state of development to require advanced scientific teaching.
Mr. Parker himself is entirely opposed to such a proposal, and as he is now convinced that he will not be allowed to oust the Japanese experts from their present farm, he has asked the authorities to grant him sufficient land in the neighbourhood of this city to enable him to establish a farm of his own for experimental and educational purposes.
Mr. Parker and Mr. Tomhave have, however, made good use of their time in Manchuria, and through the courtesy of the former I am in a position to forward copy of a very able and interesting Report, in which the information concerning the
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